Fairfax Media reported on Friday that Australia's Bureau of Meteorology will announce on Tuesday the imminent arrival of the latest round of El Nino.
El Nino is the warm phase of a major climate system that occurs in the South Pacific, which sees sea surface temperatures anomalously warm or cold for long periods.
As warm waters spreads from the west Pacific to the east Pacific, it takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.
Australia's threshold for an El Nino episode is sustained warmth of sea-surface temperatures 0.8 degrees Celcius above average.
"You can see a warming in the eastern Pacific, which looks to be a classic El Nino event," Dr Agus Santoso, an El Nino modeller at the University of New South Wales, told Fairfax Media on Friday.
Santoso said if the El Nino conditions continue rising through winter and peak in summer, "a big El Nino" could be the potential result.
Santoso said it was quite rare that the build up of unusual warmth in the eastern Pacific was happening so early in the year. Regular El Nino years begin in or after July.
El Nino causes global temperatures to rise as a warmer Pacific is less capable of absorbing heat from the atmosphere. Global temperatures typically rise by one or two tenths of a degree Celsius.
The climate event causes disastrous conditions in eastern and southern Australia. Droughts become deeper, agriculture yields smaller and bushfire seasons longer and more intense.
Inland Queensland, western Victoria and north-central New South Wales have already suffered serious or severe rainfall deficiency over the past 30 months.
Xinhua - china.org.cn
8/5/15
'Substantial' El Nino event predicted...
ReplyDeleteThe El Nino weather pattern, which can drive droughts and flooding, is under way in the tropical Pacific for the first time in five years, say scientists.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology predicted that it could be a "substantial" event.
The phenomenon arises from variations in ocean temperatures.
The El Nino is still in its early stages, but has the potential to cause extreme weather around the world.
US scientists announced earlier in April that El Nino had arrived, but it was described then as "weak".
Australian scientists said models suggested it could strengthen from September onwards, but it was too early to determine with confidence how strong it could be.
"This is a proper El Nino effect, it's not a weak one," David Jones, manager of climate monitoring and prediction at the Bureau of Meteorology, told reporters.
"You know, there's always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we'd suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event."............http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32704506
12/5/15